A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
